Round 3 and 4 DFS Recap

Jan 20

5 min read

DFS'ers, Round 3 and Round 4 of the DFF Post Season Brawl are in the books — and the Super Bowl Round is starting to come into focus.

For those just tuning in: this is a 5-round, Full PPR playoff contest. Each round, you draft a 9-man roster:

QB / 2x RB / 3x WR / TE / FLEX / DST with a $200 budget, and only players active in that round’s slate.

The top 4 overall finishers after Round 5 will advance to the Super Bowl Round.

And now… on to the carnage.

ROUND 3 RESULTS

Ayden came out this round and dropped 126.62, nudging Bootlegger out of the top spot by about 5.5 points. It was a pretty steep drop after those two with Stro coming in at 3rd with 100 points.Even with a comp

lete goose egg in the lineup (Kendrick Bourne), Ayden still cleared the field and notched the prize this round. As for my roster, I read an article saying Pat Bryant was going to be a steal at $10 so I rolled with it and dumped the extra cash into Dalton Kincaid. And on the very first drive Bryant dropped 3 catches for 32 yards ...then got broke and didn’t come back. Sigh. This was one of those lineups that doesn’t embarrass the family name, but also doesn’t pay the bar tab (especially mine). For the rest of the performances in Round 3, ten points separated 4th from 9th so it was pretty tight. The bottom 3? Let’s just say … sad pandas. This round the best value came out of Denver with Marvin Mims Jr. Who clearly benefitted from my guy going down. Mims was another $10 salary and put up 19.3 points. Kenneth walker, despite costing $20, still put up 1.7 points/dollar which is pretty darn good. And lastly The Seahawks continue to prove why they are the most expensive defense getting 21 points on $18.

ROUND 4 RESULTS

Round 4 was a completely different beast: lower slate average, tighter distribution, and a lot more “who didn’t step on their own dick” energy. Only ten points separated 1st from 7th. Jori, Seth and Bootlegger had a rougher time of it and didn’t help their overall totals that much with none of them getting more than 83 points. The biggest letdown of the week though?!? Both Jason and Ayden forgot to set their lineups. They both tried to set a lineup composed of players only from the late game, but alas, Yahoo forces you to have players from at least three teams. This is a big letdown. I had them send me a screencap of the rosters they wanted to use. And I was just going to manually count the points. But, in the end, I figured that wasn’t fair to the rest of you guys who DIDN’T forget to set their roster. You can’t win if you don’t submit a roster and even the gods can’t score if they aren’t playing. Lance snuck into first place this week with Missy and I both less than 3.5 points behind. Kyren Williams did most of the heavy lifting for Lance coming in at 25.7 points. It certainly helped his bottom line when his back up, Blake Corum, went down with an injury. As for the rest of the league (with the exception of the last 5 places mentioned above), everyone kept the running pretty tight this round for overall scoring.The perfect lineup this week scored 137.78 points so it was definitely a low scoring week (round 3 was 160.96 for reference and Rounds 1 and 2 were even higher). The NE DST this week was a complete game changer getting 20 points on $13. The next most efficient plays were Demario Douglas (who?) and Cole Kmet at 1.06 points/dollar. Nothing crazy in that round. Kmet was also the beneficiary of a teammate getting hurt when Colston Loveland went down.

BIGGEST TAKEAWAYS THROUGH ROUND 4

After rounds 1 and 2 I had a pretty strong lead at 264 points with a 22 point lead over Genesis in 2nd, and about 30 over the next two in line Ayden and Seth. Lance was having a hard time of it, down at the bottom, with only 191 points, but he had plenty of company. Kari, Dave, Bootlegger, Missy, and Jori were all under 196. Round 3 would see some shakeups. Ayden and Bootlegger had those significant 120 point games (20 points more than the rest of us at least). This rocketed Ayden past me into first dropping me to 2nd. Bootlegger went from lickin’ boots near the bottom all the way up to 5th. Genesis and Seth rounded out the top 4 by holding serve after two decent first rounds. The goose egg from Ayden tumbled him to 10th (still better than Jori who has NOT had a goose egg game…eww). This allowed me to reclaim first place with 450 points. Henny and Seth followed me up in the chain after Ayden’s exit, moving into 2nd and 3rd respectively. 4th place was a surprise. After a strong week 1, Lance had been clawing his way up from last place in round 2, to 8th after round three, and now sits in 4th place after winning Round 4. However, it’s about as delicate a lead as one can have with 2 players (Bootlegger and Kari) less than a point and a half behind. I think it’s safe to say Stro with his zero point round is out of the running and will not make the Superbowl without some sort of miracle. On the other end, I’m in first and clearly operating at an elite level of fantasy degeneracy. It will be really hard for me to miss the Superbowl. Genesis is sitting in the “safe but not immune” spot. A bad Round 5 could still knock her out, but it would take a full-on disaster. After that, it gets juicy. Seth in spot 3 is vulnerable. And 4th place, well that is going to be a knife fight in a phone booth. 1.4 points separates 4, 5 and 6 right now. Lance, Bootlegger, Kari.

Let me do some math for you to keep you from becoming a distressed accountant during tax season. Jori, in 11th place, is only 40 points out of 4th place and 52 out of 3rd. 40 may sound like a lot, but consider this: here are the differences in points between 1st and last place in each round.

1: 57

2: 74

3: 59

4: 29 (not counting the 0’s)

Each round has the capacity to swing your score that much (the average swing was 63 points in the first three rounds). Ayden, even with a zero point round, could still take 2nd place if he just scores 66 points more than Genesis. Of course, that means other folks will have to have some bad games too but a jump that far is not beyond reasonable. I think this is what makes the DFS format so exciting. This is what we’re looking at.